BMIBy Calypso Research6 min read

Badger Meter (BMI) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Metering Expectations as Revenue Flow Slows 11%

Key Takeaways

Badger Meter (BMI) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $221M, representing a +7.6% year-over-year change. The stock moved -11.0% on earnings day.

The bull case: High conviction in 5-year growth outlook and expanding product portfolio supports sustained market leadership. The long-term growth outlook is strong with expectations of high single-digit growth, supported by ongoing demand for replacement products and successful acquisitions like SmartCover.

The bear case: Project pacing delays and commodity pressures may lead to uneven near-term growth and margin volatility. The second half of the year is expected to experience a lower growth rate, which raises concerns about the sustainability of margins amid fluctuating input costs.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $221M (+7.6% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $93M (42.1% margin, +1.8% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $43M (19.5% margin, +0.4% YoY)
  • Net Income: $34M
  • TTM Revenue: $917M

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: -11.0%
  • Year-to-Date: -11.4%
  • 1-Year Return: -24.3%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): -21.5%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): -20.4%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Badger Meter's Q4 2025 earnings call:

Project Pacing Dynamics and Impact on Revenue Growth

Sentiment: Positive

"The first half started out with a higher growth rate, the second half of the year with a lower growth rate. I think the way we see '26 is a lower growth rate in the first half and a higher growth rate in the second half." — Kenneth Bockhorst
"These aren't hoping for backlog increases...These are known awarded, not started projects that even if they have some variability in where they move, they're in our pocket." — Robert Wrocklage

PRASA AMI Project Scope and Timing

Sentiment: Positive

"The PRASA award is the equivalent to 8 Orlandos." — Kenneth Bockhorst
"Part of the project purpose and intent is in response to Hurricane Maria...and so the funding of that project in part is coming from FEMA dollars." — Robert Wrocklage

Gross Margin Sustainability Amid Commodity Pressures

Sentiment: Mixed

"Gross margin continued to benefit from structural mix driven by ultrasonic meters, cellular AMI, water quality and SmartCover sales." — Daniel Weltzien
"We continue to see structural mix impacting margins in a positive way in 2026...but we are watching commodity input costs into our ingot recipe and tariffs." — Kenneth Bockhorst

Long-Term Growth Outlook and AMI Adoption Potential

Sentiment: Positive

"Our conviction on high single digits through the 5-year horizon is as strong today as it was yesterday." — Kenneth Bockhorst
"85% of the market every year is replacement...The project stuff is all very interesting, but the bottom line is very strong." — Robert Wrocklage

SmartCover Acquisition Performance and Growth Potential

Sentiment: Positive

"Before we acquired it, [SmartCover] was growing at a 20% CAGR for multiple years." — Kenneth Bockhorst
"We fully expect to continue to grow our sewer line monitoring at a higher rate than average." — Kenneth Bockhorst

Bull Case

High conviction in 5-year growth outlook and expanding product portfolio supports sustained market leadership. The long-term growth outlook is strong with expectations of high single-digit growth, supported by ongoing demand for replacement products and successful acquisitions like SmartCover.

Bear Case

Project pacing delays and commodity pressures may lead to uneven near-term growth and margin volatility. The second half of the year is expected to experience a lower growth rate, which raises concerns about the sustainability of margins amid fluctuating input costs.

Looking Ahead

Investors will be closely watching Badger Meter's next quarterly report for continued execution, particularly around project Pacing Dynamics and Impact on Revenue Growth. With operating margins at 19.5%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The market's negative earnings-day reaction signals that investors need to see stronger execution, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Badger Meter's revenue in Q4 2025?

Badger Meter reported Q4 2025 revenue of $221M, representing a +7.6% year-over-year change.

Did Badger Meter beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock declined -11.0% on earnings day, suggesting the results fell short of market expectations. The current bull case centers on: High conviction in 5-year growth outlook and expanding product portfolio supports sustained market leadership. The long-term growth outlook is strong with expectations of high single-digit growth, supported by ongoing demand for replacement products and successful acquisitions like SmartCover.

What is the bull case for BMI stock?

The bull case for BMI centers on: High conviction in 5-year growth outlook and expanding product portfolio supports sustained market leadership. The long-term growth outlook is strong with expectations of high single-digit growth, supported by ongoing demand for replacement products and successful acquisitions like SmartCover.

What is the bear case for BMI stock?

The bear case for BMI centers on: Project pacing delays and commodity pressures may lead to uneven near-term growth and margin volatility. The second half of the year is expected to experience a lower growth rate, which raises concerns about the sustainability of margins amid fluctuating input costs.

How has BMI stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

BMI moved -11.0% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500 by +21.5% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned -11.4%.

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