MNDYBy Calypso Research7 min read

Monday.com (MNDY) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Monday's Down Day: Revenue Up But Stock's Out of Control

Key Takeaways

Monday.com (MNDY) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $334M, representing a +24.6% year-over-year change. The stock moved -7.2% on earnings day.

The bull case: Enterprise-led growth, strong large-customer retention, and monetizable AI/Vibe capabilities allow monday.com to compound revenue in the high teens with durable, improving profitability over time.

The bear case: Persistent SMB and performance marketing weakness, lower structural margins from AI and FX, and a reset of long-term targets signal a business transitioning to slower, less profitable growth than previously expected.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $334M (+24.6% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $297M (88.8% margin, +0.2% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $2M (0.7% margin, -2.9% YoY)
  • Net Income: $77M
  • TTM Revenue: $1.2B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: -7.2%
  • Year-to-Date: -51.1%
  • 1-Year Return: -76.5%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): -54.6%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): -51.8%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Monday.com's Q4 2025 earnings call:

2026 Growth Deceleration, No-Touch/SMB Headwinds, and Reset of 2027 Targets

Sentiment: Mixed

"Since then, there is a lot of noise in the market in terms of macro economy, as we said, our no-touch business continued to be choppy and volatile... so this is why we thought based on what we know today, that it would be prudent to reset the guidance that we are giving." — Eliran Glazer
"Yeah, we expect '26 to not be different than what we've seen so far. With the choppiness in the performance marketing. And it mainly affects the small businesses like everyone said, and the smaller area." — Roy Mann

Profitability, FX Headwinds, and 2026 Margin Compression (Op Margin & FCF)

Sentiment: Mixed

"We expect full-year non-GAAP operating income of $165 million to $175 million, with an operating margin of 11% to 12%, which assumes a negative FX impact of 100 to 200 basis points." — Eliran Glazer
"First of all, you are accurate with regards to gross margin. If we're going to invest as we you know, with AI, we said that we are going to see a a gross margin mid-eighties to high-eighties, and we used to have 90%." — Eliran Glazer

AI Strategy, Monetization of Sidekick & Agents, and Customer Willingness to Pay

Sentiment: Positive

"Basically, Sidekick offers our customers not just to use AI capabilities within their account, but also it kind of accesses the brain of the account... So, essentially, it becomes like a business brain of the company." — Eran Zinman
"They're not necessarily looking for a science project... they're interested in having a trusted partner and a trusted platform so that they can deploy this technology in a trusted way... we're not running away from AI. We're embracing this. And leading and leading, the market with it." — Casey George

Upmarket / Enterprise Motion, Retention Quality, and Vendor Consolidation

Sentiment: Positive

"They look to know, vendor consolidation. Right? They're looking to rationalize their vendor suite. And we have a a very healthy portfolio that we can offer to our clients so that they continue to consume more of our products." — Casey George
"We actually see high levels of cross retention across our $50,000 cohort now at 91%. This number has been growing quarter after quarter for the past two years. And also, we see renewal rates in the high nineties." — Eran Zinman

Monday Vibe and Vibe Coding: Use Cases, Competitive Dynamics, and Revenue Potential

Sentiment: Positive

"We see things be from very small stuff like creating dashboards and presentation of data and reports. To the higher end of building complete really meaningful large applications on top of it that they couldn't do before." — Roy Mann
"We also created a new go-to-market that allows customers looking for a new Vibe coding solution to find Monday as one of the alternatives... we're very focused around work. And enterprise-grade solutions." — Eran Zinman

Bull Case

Enterprise-led growth, strong large-customer retention, and monetizable AI/Vibe capabilities allow monday.com to compound revenue in the high teens with durable, improving profitability over time.

Bear Case

Persistent SMB and performance marketing weakness, lower structural margins from AI and FX, and a reset of long-term targets signal a business transitioning to slower, less profitable growth than previously expected.

Looking Ahead

With revenue growing +24.6% year-over-year, the key question is whether Monday.com can sustain this growth trajectory, particularly around 2026 Growth Deceleration, No-Touch/SMB Headwinds, and Reset of 2027 Targets. With operating margins at 0.7%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The market's negative earnings-day reaction signals that investors need to see stronger execution, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Monday.com's revenue in Q4 2025?

Monday.com reported Q4 2025 revenue of $334M, representing a +24.6% year-over-year change.

Did Monday.com beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock declined -7.2% on earnings day, suggesting the results fell short of market expectations. The current bull case centers on: Enterprise-led growth, strong large-customer retention, and monetizable AI/Vibe capabilities allow monday.com to compound revenue in the high teens with durable, improving profitability over time.

What is the bull case for MNDY stock?

The bull case for MNDY centers on: Enterprise-led growth, strong large-customer retention, and monetizable AI/Vibe capabilities allow monday.com to compound revenue in the high teens with durable, improving profitability over time.

What is the bear case for MNDY stock?

The bear case for MNDY centers on: Persistent SMB and performance marketing weakness, lower structural margins from AI and FX, and a reset of long-term targets signal a business transitioning to slower, less profitable growth than previously expected.

How has MNDY stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

MNDY moved -7.2% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500 by +54.6% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned -51.1%.

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