RACEBy Calypso Research7 min read

Ferrari (RACE) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Fueling Up with 8.1% Gains as Ferrari Races Ahead

Key Takeaways

Ferrari (RACE) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $1.8B, representing a +3.8% year-over-year change. The stock moved +8.1% on earnings day.

The bull case: Ferrari’s disciplined mix and pricing strategy, strong order book through 2027, and successful roll-out of high-margin models like F80 and Luce support sustained double-digit earnings growth and robust free cash flow well beyond the already conservative 2030 targets.

The bear case: FX headwinds, rising F1 and R&D costs, EV transition risks around Luce and the 20-40-40 mix, and a hard cap on volumes and certain personalization options could constrain operating leverage and make recent margin highs difficult to sustain into the next decade.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $1.8B (+3.8% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $935M (51.9% margin, +1.7% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $501M (27.8% margin, +1.0% YoY)
  • Net Income: $380M
  • TTM Revenue: $7.1B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: +8.1%
  • Year-to-Date: -3.6%
  • 1-Year Return: -28.2%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): -14.7%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): -11.9%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Ferrari's Q4 2025 earnings call:

2026 Margin Trajectory, FX Headwinds and Bridge to 2030 Targets

Sentiment: Positive

"What we can tell you about 2026 is that we expect the mix to be compared to 2024 to be stronger as a variance in the second half of the year... and we expect to have a steady improvement over the course of the quarters." — Antonio Picca Piccon
"Based on the assumptions I outlined before... we are assuming, as of now, considering the hedges that we have in place... to have a headwind of about EUR 200 million that are already in the numbers we have been giving to you." — Antonio Picca Piccon

Product Mix, F80 and Special Series Volume Patterns

Sentiment: Positive

"This year, we have 7 new models, a record number, which entered the production and distribution phases and will shape the pace of our deliveries and their geographic allocation throughout 2026... the families of the 296 Speciale and the 849 Testarossa will take the place of the 296 and the SF90 families, while the Amalfi will succeed the Roma." — Antonio Picca Piccon
"We started the production as planned. Two, we shipped a few units in Q4, and this unit ended in the hand of customers all over the world... but we don't want to be specific to tell how many units have been shipped to whom." — Benedetto Vigna

Ferrari Luce Strategy, Positioning and EV/ICE Mix to 2030

Sentiment: Positive

"You do not have to force clients to buy something that they don't like... this is a car, Ferrari Luce, that is also electric. It's not an electric car." — Benedetto Vigna
"Today, the visibility we have is 20‑40‑40... If something will happen... then we may review in '28... when the situation is changing... we are nimble, and we are adapting to what is coming." — Benedetto Vigna

Order Book Strength, Residual Values and Market Management (UK, US, India)

Sentiment: Positive

"The momentum for our brand remains strong with a solid order book, which extends towards the end of 2027 and the net order intake supporting further visibility, notwithstanding the persistent uncertainty in the global environment." — Benedetto Vigna
"When it comes to residual value... it is stable and solid... we said that already that the U.K., the residual value is stabilizing. Also because we have been -- if you remember well, we reduced the shipment." — Benedetto Vigna

Personalization Revenue Sustainability and Capacity

Sentiment: Positive

"For some personalized items, we don't want to go beyond a limit also because we have always in mind that this story of exclusivity... otherwise, we'll be not any more personalized or special." — Benedetto Vigna

Bull Case

Ferrari’s disciplined mix and pricing strategy, strong order book through 2027, and successful roll-out of high-margin models like F80 and Luce support sustained double-digit earnings growth and robust free cash flow well beyond the already conservative 2030 targets.

Bear Case

FX headwinds, rising F1 and R&D costs, EV transition risks around Luce and the 20-40-40 mix, and a hard cap on volumes and certain personalization options could constrain operating leverage and make recent margin highs difficult to sustain into the next decade.

Looking Ahead

Investors will be closely watching Ferrari's next quarterly report for continued execution, particularly around 2026 Margin Trajectory, FX Headwinds and Bridge to 2030 Targets. With operating margins at 27.8%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The market's positive reaction on earnings day suggests confidence in management's direction, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Ferrari's revenue in Q4 2025?

Ferrari reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.8B, representing a +3.8% year-over-year change.

Did Ferrari beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock rose +8.1% on earnings day, suggesting the results met or exceeded market expectations. The current bull case centers on: Ferrari’s disciplined mix and pricing strategy, strong order book through 2027, and successful roll-out of high-margin models like F80 and Luce support sustained double-digit earnings growth and robust free cash flow well beyond the already conservative 2030 targets.

What is the bull case for RACE stock?

The bull case for RACE centers on: Ferrari’s disciplined mix and pricing strategy, strong order book through 2027, and successful roll-out of high-margin models like F80 and Luce support sustained double-digit earnings growth and robust free cash flow well beyond the already conservative 2030 targets.

What is the bear case for RACE stock?

The bear case for RACE centers on: FX headwinds, rising F1 and R&D costs, EV transition risks around Luce and the 20-40-40 mix, and a hard cap on volumes and certain personalization options could constrain operating leverage and make recent margin highs difficult to sustain into the next decade.

How has RACE stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

RACE moved +8.1% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500 by +14.7% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned -3.6%.

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