ADMBy Calypso Research8 min read

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Crushing Expectations or Just Crushing It? $18.6B Down 13.7%

Key Takeaways

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) reported Q4 2025 earnings with revenue of $18.6B, representing a -13.7% year-over-year change. The stock moved -1.0% on earnings day.

The bull case: A constructive multi-year biofuel policy backdrop, improving Nutrition execution, and a sizable cost-out program unlock operating leverage and drive ADM’s EPS above prior-cycle peaks as crush, ethanol, and high-value ingredients all inflect higher.

The bear case: Persistent S&S demand erosion (including GLP-1 effects), structurally higher manufacturing and corporate costs, and slower-than-hoped realization of RVO and ethanol policy benefits keep ADM’s earnings stuck near the low end of guidance and below peer returns despite a favorable macro narrative.

Financial Highlights

  • Revenue: $18.6B (-13.7% YoY)
  • Gross Profit: $1.2B (6.5% margin, +0.2% YoY)
  • Operating Income: $320M (1.7% margin, -0.2% YoY)
  • Net Income: $456M
  • TTM Revenue: $80.3B

Stock Performance

  • Earnings Day Move: -1.0%
  • Year-to-Date: +14.6%
  • 1-Year Return: +39.9%
  • vs. S&P 500 (since earnings): +18.0%
  • vs. Nasdaq (since earnings): +20.8%

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What Management Said

Here are the key debates and direct quotes from Archer Daniels Midland's Q4 2025 earnings call:

Magnitude and Timing of RVO / Biofuel Policy Upside for Crush and EPS

Sentiment: Positive

"That's why our guidance is wide... What we are discussing here is the timing of all these coming to the P&L. We know it's positive. We know it's gonna come... if these things will be done at the '1, for us, it will be mostly July onwards, if you will, that we'll be able to realize that." — Juan Luciano
"At the end of the day, this is all going to depend on two things. One is what happens with the RVO guidance... it's very hard to sit here right now and pinpoint exactly a number that says when and how much crush margins are going to be because it's dependent on so many factors." — Monish Patolawala

Nutrition Segment Recovery and Decatur East Customer Win-Back

Sentiment: Positive

"If you compare apples to apples, Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024. Q4 2024 has a significant piece of insurance proceeds into the nutrition P&L. So if you exclude that... we had a very strong quarter in flavors with OP up close to 60% or something... specialty ingredients continue with the Decatur East plant back online... our customers move away after eighteen months of us not being able to supply fully. So as you said, we need to recover that, and we need to recover that prudently." — Juan Luciano
"As I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, when you're doing your modeling... from a revenue perspective, you won't see the revenue, the profit for 2026 is pretty much where it was as this JV takes hold. So it's a part of what Juan mentioned, which is moving to higher segments or higher product mix in the animal nutrition." — Monish Patolawala

ADM’s Underperformance in Crush vs Peers and Elevated Manufacturing Costs

Sentiment: Mixed

"I don't see anything clearly from a commercial perspective that has changed for us to justify what you described. I would say the main difference... is our manufacturing costs have gone up... our cost in terms of energy or manpower or contract and things like that, is higher than than it used to be, and we're working hard to reduce that." — Juan Luciano
"As you think about the cost out of 500 to the seven that we've talked about, and we've started that work in 2025... one of the big items in that unlock is manufacturing cost product. And that's what the team has plans to keep driving it. They're made progress in '25, and we'll continue to make progress in '26 and beyond." — Monish Patolawala

Starches & Sweeteners Demand Softness, GLP-1 Impact, and Offsets from Ethanol / 45Z

Sentiment: Mixed

"There are we go when we produce what we produce in sweeteners, we go to so many applications... certainly, when people adopt GLP ones, we see the consumption drops a little bit as a family. That stabilizes, if you will, after six months. But also also shift a little bit what they consume, going more into proteins and maybe less savory snacks or sweet snacks... liquid sweeteners volumes are down. Maybe in the range of five to 7%." — Juan Luciano
"With regards to 45 c, there are many to consider... we think when we put in our estimate, we think that it could be a $100 million. But as I said, just to give you a flavor, there are many variables, so take that with a grain of salt." — Juan Luciano

Shape and Quality of 2026 EPS Guidance (Range Width, Corporate Costs, and Mix)

Sentiment: Mixed

"We are providing an adjusted EPS range of $3.60 to $4.25 for the full year 2026 and view this range of outcomes as highly predicated on several key factors... the timing of when we receive US biofuel policy clarity... the size of the RVO requirement and the SRE offset." — Monish Patolawala
"On corporate, as I've said, corporate will be higher on a year-over-year basis driven by a few facts. One is the improvement in SEG OP. Some of that, we are going to use to reinvest back in the business in R&D and digital... we will continue to see the impact of a lower incentive compensation in 2025. That won't repeat in 2026." — Monish Patolawala

Bull Case

A constructive multi-year biofuel policy backdrop, improving Nutrition execution, and a sizable cost-out program unlock operating leverage and drive ADM’s EPS above prior-cycle peaks as crush, ethanol, and high-value ingredients all inflect higher.

Bear Case

Persistent S&S demand erosion (including GLP-1 effects), structurally higher manufacturing and corporate costs, and slower-than-hoped realization of RVO and ethanol policy benefits keep ADM’s earnings stuck near the low end of guidance and below peer returns despite a favorable macro narrative.

Looking Ahead

With revenue declining -13.7% year-over-year, investors will be watching for signs of a turnaround at Archer Daniels Midland, particularly around magnitude and Timing of RVO / Biofuel Policy Upside for Crush and EPS. With operating margins at 1.7%, margin trends will remain a focal point. The muted stock reaction on earnings day suggests the market is taking a wait-and-see approach, and the next earnings report will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Archer Daniels Midland's revenue in Q4 2025?

Archer Daniels Midland reported Q4 2025 revenue of $18.6B, representing a -13.7% year-over-year change.

Did Archer Daniels Midland beat earnings expectations in Q4 2025?

The stock moved -1.0% on earnings day, suggesting the results were roughly in line with market expectations. The current bull case centers on: A constructive multi-year biofuel policy backdrop, improving Nutrition execution, and a sizable cost-out program unlock operating leverage and drive ADM’s EPS above prior-cycle peaks as crush, ethanol, and high-value ingredients all inflect higher.

What is the bull case for ADM stock?

The bull case for ADM centers on: A constructive multi-year biofuel policy backdrop, improving Nutrition execution, and a sizable cost-out program unlock operating leverage and drive ADM’s EPS above prior-cycle peaks as crush, ethanol, and high-value ingredients all inflect higher.

What is the bear case for ADM stock?

The bear case for ADM centers on: Persistent S&S demand erosion (including GLP-1 effects), structurally higher manufacturing and corporate costs, and slower-than-hoped realization of RVO and ethanol policy benefits keep ADM’s earnings stuck near the low end of guidance and below peer returns despite a favorable macro narrative.

How has ADM stock performed since its Q4 2025 earnings?

ADM moved -1.0% on the day of its Q4 2025 earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 by +18.0% since earnings. Year-to-date, the stock has returned +14.6%.

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